When most people think about AI progress, they think about big, flashy moments: an AI winning a chess match, generating a song, or answering a complicated trivia question in seconds. But if you run a business, you know real success doesn’t come from a single clever move. It comes from sticking with a project — handling complexity over days, even weeks.
That’s why I found a recent study from METR (Model Evaluation and Testing for Reliability) so interesting.
They’re proposing a new way to measure AI progress: not just by what it can do in a few seconds, but by how well it can complete long tasks — projects that require persistence, multi-step planning, and adjustment over time.
And here’s the kicker: according to METR and a follow-up article on LiveScience, today’s leading AIs are doubling their ability to handle longer, more complex tasks every few months. That’s a staggering pace of improvement. It suggests we’re going to see a whole new class of AI tools emerging much sooner than most people expect.
How this shift affects small businesses
For small businesses like yours and mine, this is going to be a big deal.
Until now, most AI tools have been good at short bursts of work — drafting an email, creating a quick graphic, answering a single customer service question. Helpful, sure, but limited.
But now? We’re starting to see AI agents that can manage entire workflows over long stretches of time without needing someone to check in every few minutes.
Think about it:
- An AI that runs your social media campaigns for weeks, tweaking ads based on live performance.
- A digital assistant that walks new customers through onboarding, following up over days or even weeks without dropping the ball.
- An operations bot that watches over your inventory, spots issues early, and coordinates with suppliers automatically.
This isn’t science fiction anymore. It’s on the horizon, and fast.
For small businesses — especially those stretched thin on staff and time — this could be transformational. You’ll be able to automate not just simple tasks, but entire processes that used to eat up your team’s time and energy.
What small business owners should be thinking about now
If you’re a small business owner or entrepreneur, I think there are a few smart moves you can make right now:
1. Stay informed.
Start paying attention to how AI companies are talking about long-task performance, not just instant results. It’s going to become a critical differentiator.
2. Start experimenting with longer workflows.
Even today’s tools can often string together a series of steps — whether that’s using Make.com for automations, or integrating an AI into your CRM. Starting small now means you’ll be better prepared as the tools get stronger.
3. Work with people who understand both AI and real-world business.
Setting up long-running AI agents isn’t going to be “set it and forget it.” You’ll need guidance on setting goals, monitoring results, and adjusting over time.
In short: The future of AI isn’t just about speed. It’s about endurance. It’s about the ability to actually complete what you started — reliably, thoughtfully, and over the long haul.
And the small businesses that understand this shift early are the ones that will be leading the pack in a few years.